Why GDV Assumptions Are Failing in Today’s Market

Developers rarely set out to overpromise, but GDV optimism is practically baked into early-stage appraisals. In today’s climate of construction volatility, mortgage friction, and recalibrated buyer sentiment, those legacy assumptions are quickly ageing out.

At Arqhaus, we help capital partners sense-check what’s real, what’s soft and what needs a full rework – before risk becomes write-off. Here’s how to identify when your GDV is no longer grounded, and what to do next.

What’s Breaking GDV Today?

The gap between assumed and actual value is widening. Common causes include:

• Unit mixes out of step with local demand

• Over-reliance on outlier comps

• EPC ratings dragging down premium pricing

• Investor absorption vanishing from launch plans

• Unrealistic sales rates driving cash flow illusions

Ask yourself: would these values still hold if marketed today, at scale, to local buyers?

The Hidden Costs of an Inaccurate GDV

Flawed GDVs aren’t just bad maths, they distort every downstream decision:

• Wrong funding structure

• Wrong exit strategy

• Wrong delivery phasing

Lenders end up overexposed and developers can’t pivot until it’s too late. The sooner the GDV gets realigned, the more room there is to course-correct.

How to Re-anchor It

We approach GDV like a buyer, not a model:

• Live local pricing data, not just headline Rightmove listings

• Red flag tracking (EPCs, layout bias, investor dependency)

• Phasing logic; what’s actually deliverable in current conditions

• Liquidity vs theoretical value

Sometimes the fix is surgical (change in tenure mix or spec). Sometimes, it’s structural (partial disposal, design rework, rental pivot).

Want an Independent GDV Review?

If you're holding an asset where the numbers don’t add up – or you’re about to commit to one – we offer fast, independent GDV sense-checks tailored for lenders, receivers and capital partners.

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